Sibling Rivalry Gone Crazy

When two brothers in a family get into a fight and pick up a knife or a gun, at what point does the entire village join in? Rarely or probably never. Village elders have always known when to stay away from a fight that is not theirs in the first place.

Aggression only creates more aggression. 

Its day 6 today. The daily updates by Ukrainian politicians and citizens is only making things worse and not helping to diffuse the fast degrading situation. Every response seems to be making an already crazed Putin progressively more mad and more angry. Common sense and survival instinct should tell us that this is not the right time or right way to provoke so that everyone can give finding peace a real chance.

I was looking at what Ukranians are circulating on social media. A pictorial scorecard in particular, of how many tanks destroyed, soldiers killed, planes downed on their enemy side, in a convincing attempt to show that they are winning. Tactical propaganda for sure, but perhaps only some of them realize that provoking further consequences will only invite the full wrath of the evil side of Putin, to be unleashed on them.

Chest thumping of any nature always has a multitude of consequences. Managing complex narratives are like walking a fine line, it can go either way. In this case, an already wounded lion can get even more mad, and then onward, things cannot de-escalate even if they may be willing to do so. On the other hand, demoralizing the opposition may trigger insider actions that may create change from within. What actually happens, one can only know by going forward in a time machine and looking back. Yes, quite often, it takes that long to fully understand the  implications of the outcomes of war.

A sad consequence is that, beyond a point, all of this is making Ukraine into a hot potato that nobody will want to touch, since the hard fact is that they are neither in NATO or EU at the moment. And in an ongoing war situation, it is unlikely that they will get admitted into either, as there is a process behind such things, not to forget that it will bring the war to everyone's doorstep. This is a point of no return for many and there is no way of turning back once you get here.

As of today (2nd March 2022), the situation is dire. 

The Kyiv-headed 40-mile long military convoy has a crazed world leader at one end and fiery patriots at the other, and one can only imagine how this is going to end. If history were to repeat itself, the Ukranian and Russian pride will dictate what comes next, as one of them are known to be from the land of the braves.

As for the world Nations being accused of voyeurism on the side of the stage, some are keeping quiet, others are showing sympathy, some outrage. And many are announcing future sanctions. Yet they all know that all of this mainly helps to contain the problem in one place, till it eventually goes away, which is just a matter of time.

Ukraine therefore has now become collateral damage. In my view.

Regardless of what the outcomes are going to be, the conflict will end one day, but what remains to be seen is, at what cost? Economic devastation and loss of human life are on the cards for decades to come. 

In a mud fight everybody gets messy, and you cannot expect to walk away clean unless u bring a pistol. And let us not forget that fight ends best when both sides can walk away feeling they got some wins. It is indeed a pity that there are no adults in the room on either side to cool the tempers and diffuse the situation. Some social behaviors are cultural and deeply embedded in history. One only has to look at the past 1,000 years of both nations to see a pattern that helps you understand what one can expect in the future.

Pacifism has a reason why it works, because if you can find a way to survive, you can live to fight another day in another way.

Our thoughts today are with the oppressed, we pray for precious human lives to be spared from the egos of the leaders at both ends. 

May tomorrow bring better news.